Knowing When the Past Applies

Past success can be persuasive.

An approach worked before. The organization achieved its objective. The decision became part of the institutional playbook.

Why not use it again?

Because a previous success demonstrates that an approach can work. It does not prove that it will work under different conditions.

The market may have moved from expansion to contraction.
Technology may have changed the competitive landscape.
Stakeholder expectations may have shifted.
The organization’s financial capacity may be more constrained.
The leadership team responsible for execution may be different.

The challenge may appear familiar while the factors that shaped the earlier outcome have materially changed.

Before relying on precedent, directors should ask:

Why did the approach work previously?
Which conditions made that outcome possible?
Are those conditions still present?
What is different this time?
Which differences could change the result?
What early indicators would tell us our assumptions are wrong?

The past provides evidence, perspective, and lessons.

But it is a reference point—not a forecast.

Question for Directors:

When considering an approach that worked before, does your board test whether the conditions that made it successful still exist—or assume that precedent is proof?

How would your board answer this question?